Extension of Article 50 would avoid the instant option of a No-Deal Brexit, but won’t resolve any long term issues, whereas having a reviewed Brexit Deal will bring both positive and negative outcomes. It will ensure that the transition period will proceed, providing businesses with certainty, however, on the other hand, businesses may find themselves operating in a new area of unpredictability since the trade agreement will be far from straightforward.
To give a clearer overview with all the possible scenarios:
Tuesday 12
- If the PM wins the vote, the UK will leave the EU on March 29 according to the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement and will enter the transition period.
- If the PM loses the vote, MPs will have a No-Deal vote.
- MPs will vote on whether they agree with leaving the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement and transition arrangements (No-Deal).
- If MPs support the potential for No-Deal then the UK and the EU must try to find a way to prevent a No-Deal outcome within a 16 day window.
- MPs rejection of No-Deal Brexit guarantees that MPs will proceed to a third Brexit vote in three days.
- If MPs reject a No-Deal then the Government will bring forward a motion on whether Parliament want to pursue a short extension to Article 50. If MPs vote for the extension then the PM will have to agree an extension with the EU.
- MPs voting preferences could be determined by the terms of the extension motion.
- It is uncertain as to what will happen if MPs reject the extension. This is a highly unlikely scenario.